HRM Real Estate Update- Sep 2025

🏦 Bank of Canada Cuts Overnight Rate

Here's What It Means for Nova Scotia:

On September 17, 2025, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target overnight rate to 2.50 %. This marks the first cut since March 2025.

Here’s how the rate evolved in 2025 (just to keep everyone aligned):

• Jan 29 → 3.00 % (–25 bps) Bank of Canada+2RBC Royal Bank+2

• Mar 12 → 2.75 % (–25 bps) Bank of Canada+1

• Apr 16 → 2.75 % (hold) Bank of Canada+1

• June 4 → 2.75 % (hold) Bank of Canada+2RBC Royal Bank+2

• July 30 → 2.75 % (hold) Bank of Canada+1

• Sept 17 → 2.50 % (–25 bps) Bank of Canada+2Perch+2

Why it matters for real estate:

• Variable mortgages, lines of credit, and adjustable-rate loans are usually tied (directly or indirectly) to prime rates, which in turn respond to the BoC’s key rate moves.

• While absolute borrowing costs won’t drop 1-to-1 with this cut (banks have spreads, margins, and risk adjustments), this does ease the “ceiling” for lenders.

• In markets like Halifax, where even modest shifts in demand can ripple through pricing, this cut may soften buyer resistance just enough to unlock more activity in the coming months.

🗓️ BoC Announcement Schedule & What to Expect (2025)

Date	What’s Scheduled	What to Watch For
Sept 17, 2025	Rate decision + Monetary Policy Report	They cut from 2.75 % → 2.50 %
Oct 29, 2025	Rate decision + MPR	Next potential cut or hold
Dec 10, 2025	Rate decision	Final decision of 2025, with fresh inflation + growth projections

All announcements come at 10:45 ATL followed by a press conference ~45 minutes later.

What I’ll be watching closely before the next decisions:

• Inflation (core and headline) vs target

• Employment trends and job growth / losses

• Any worsening in exports or trade (especially with U.S.)

• Consumer sentiment, household debt stress, mortgage delinquencies

If things soften further, I expect at least one more 25 bp cut in Q4.

🏡 Halifax / Nova Scotia Market — What the Rate Shift Could Trigger

Here’s how this rate move might impact your local market:

• Sellers may see a small uptick in qualified buyers re-entering this fall. Again, eyes are on another potential rate cut.

• Buyers using variable or adjustable funding may see a bit more room to stretch, improving affordability.

• Mortgage renewals / refinances could reset with better terms if on variable mortgages.

• Pricing pressure may ease in overbuilt or fringe areas, while core neighbourhoods (Halifax area, established suburbs) still stay firm.

  
  

If inventory stays elevated and demand remains soft, sellers that are winning are pricing appropriately to this fall market, focusing on recent comparables rather than 2024 and prior. But this rate cut likely won’t flip the market overnight — it’s a nudge for now..